July 2016– France- 87 dead/200 injured
July 2016– Germany- 10 dead/48 injured
March 2016– Belgium- 32 dead/300 injured
(Author’s note: According to ESRI, a global market leader in GIS technologies, there have been over 3000 terrorist attacks globally since 1 January 2017 resulting in over 17,000 fatalities.)
Brussels, Nice, Wurzburg, Munich and Normandy were the sites of major and well reported attacks against Western Europe in 2016. To that, add Orlando, Turkey and the scores of thwarted attacks globally that never made headlines. Through it all the West and its leaders debate whether to blame and eventually target ISIS and its franchises, AQ and its affiliates, lone wolves or home-grown terrorists. Rather than specifying or even postulating about the grim reality of our enemy’s strategy our leaders continue to feed the public the Pablum of getting the terrorist groups name right. They say that is the first order of business in order to fight the problem effectively. Whether we view this from a hard strategic point of view of protecting our country and citizens or from a propaganda perspective, we have gotten it wrong. Our enemies have unified under a strategy, set strategic goals and have integrated their efforts through a relatively cohesive propagandized theme.
Lessons from History
Naming things.
Toward the end of 1936, Italy and Germany entered into an informal agreement of friendship. While addressing a crowd in Milan, Benito Mussolini said “This Berlin-Rome vertical line is not an obstacle but rather an axis(emphasis mine) around which can revolve all those European states with a will to collaboration and peace.” Japan became part of that agreement in 1940. The term AXIS became popular among the Allied powers and referred to a “single, monolithic and evil entity”. It is interesting to note that there are no references to Italy as a franchise of the Third Reich nor was Germany referenced as an affiliate of the Empire of Japan. One name was adopted deliberately to unify the Allied as well as the Axis strategic efforts. More recently, an influential jihadist theorist, Abu Musab al-Suri gave us a similar path to a name when he said that if an organization has the same objective, the same ideology and fights under the same banner they are the same organization. The enemy we are fighting today revolves around a monolithic and evil New Axisthat embraces violence and extremism. If entities revolve around the same ideology and have the same objective, they are the New Axis. In the interest of a unified strategy, it is important that we make our fixation with designating affiliates, franchises, lone wolves and home grown terrorists irrelevant.
Strategy.
Constructing a strategy is not simple but it must be statedsimply in order to cultivate a unity of effort in its execution. In today’s news cycle and access to a plethora of uninformed opinion, strategy is often confused and used interchangeably with operations and tactics. But the distinction is important. Strategy relates directly to the desired outcomes. Strategic level actions and planning focus on defining and supporting overarching policy. It considers all elements of power; diplomatic (political), information, military and economic often referred to with the acronym DIME. Leaders at this level must be astute enough to use all the elements of power to their best advantage. Importantly, history can be a useful teacher. A point that is not lost to ISIS, Iran and AQ. As a result, Western Europe and the West in general was unprepared for the recent virulent attacks. Incredibly, many leaders and other influencers are still in denial about the depth of the threat.
The New Axis strategy is clear, simple and encourages unity; destabilize Europe to ease resistance to subjugation and conquest for increased wealth and power. This is not the first time an invasion into Europe has been attempted with the same strategy and purpose.
On September 27, 1529. Suleiman the Magnificent, the Emperor, Caliph and Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, sat poised to capture the city of Vienna and open the body of Europe to Ottoman expansion and rule. European conquest would further the Empire’s power and increase its wealth. The Ottoman strategy, up to this point, had been successful, destabilize Europe, the Catholic Church and the Holy Roman Empire to the point where an attack and entry Europe was easier. Exploiting similarities in religion, commerce and popular resistance to the Catholic church, the Ottoman’s found another crack in Europe’s defense and had allied with the Protestant movement. Vienna was the key since it sat on the natural path into Europe’s heart. The city sat astride two key European trade routes; the Danube (Black Sea-to-Western Europe and southern Europe), and the overland (Eastern Mediterranean-to-Germany).[1] Europe feared for its Christianity and recognized the threats to its vital interests of trade, commerce and wealth. A valiant and deliberate defense was mounted but it was bad weather and not military success, as well as the Ottoman’s extended logistics lines that stopped Suleiman and the Muslim advance through Vienna.
This defeat did not stop the Ottoman Empire’s desire to destabilize and ultimately control Europe. Outwardly this was done in the name of the defense of Islam. In reality, the quest was one of power, control and money. The century and a half after Suleiman’s defeat saw deliberate Ottoman preparations to mitigate the unforeseen obstacles that stopped the Ottoman advance in 1529. Roads and bridges leading toward Austria were built or repaired. Logistical centers were established. Ammunition, cannon and other resources from all over the Ottoman Empire were prepositioned in preparation for an attack.[2]Under the command of Kara Mustafa Pasha the Ottoman army began a mobilization in early 1682. By May of 1683 the Ottoman army was moving toward Vienna. In July 1683 an army of 138,000 men began the second serious siege of Vienna.
Unlike today, Europe was not unprepared. In the previous winter, Vienna’s defenses were strengthened and a critical and mutually supporting treaty was put in place between the Hapsburgs and Poland. Understanding the strategic importance of Vienna to Europe and leaving Poland open to potential attack, Christian forces under the command of Jan III Sobieski, King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania arrived in Vienna on September 11, 1683(the other 9/11) and the battle began. The combined forces defeated the Ottoman army and began the long struggle to drive them back.
In February of 2015, ISIS/ISIL issued a statement that they would force over 500,000 refugees into Europe.[3]Through widespread destruction, escalating terror and subjugation, it is now estimated that over 1,000,000 people have fled Syria and moved toward Europe. And they continue to come using the same general path forged by the two previous invasion efforts in the 16thand 17thcenturies through Turkey to Vienna and into the heart of Western Europe. The New Axis operations created conditions that resulted in the massive migration of refugees that has generated social political and cultural pressures on sovereign governments and populations who are loath to call this something other than a humanitarian crisis. Inside that migration are radicalized and experienced fighters trained to form new cells and plan tactical attacks in targeted countries “behind enemy lines”. Interestingly, the routes into Europe have been well known for centuries. Networks already exist and are centuries old and can be illustrated with a simple overlay of current migrant routes on maps of the 17th century Ottoman Empire. We in the West should have seen this coming.
The New Axis strategyis the same as Suleiman formulated in the 16thCentury. It was simply stated then and it is simply stated now. Destabilize cultural and societal structures to expand control economic, and political power. This New Axis possess a unified vision, a unified ideology and are fighting under a unified banner. We must recognize this and fight it as one organization. Our adversaries are effectivelyemploying military, information, and economic sources of power with the intent of achieving a conversion of the political. This tactic of flooding Europe with refugees weakens and destabilizes the societal and cultural structures of European states. It forces nations to spend national treasure under an aegis of humanitarian actions. As Bart Bachman has recently pointed out in an article published by the Migration Policy Institute, this tactic stokes political fears that results in a loss of confidence in one’s government and creates a sense that supra-national elements are eroding national sovereignty which, in turn, flames concern over increased terrorism and crime. It is patently untrue that “terror groups are killing large numbers of people as a means of staying relevant” or because they hate us or our freedoms. Their strategy is bigger and less emotional.
In the 16thand 17thcenturies the Ottoman advance was halted at Vienna. Today, the New Axis has breached Europe’s defenses on multiple fronts. They are not just on the way, they are here and
this time there is no Jan Sobieski.
[1]http://www.wien-vienna.com/vienna1683.php
[2]http://www.wien-vienna.com/vienna1683.php